Is Nvidia sufficiently long-term oriented?

Nvidia is losing revenue because export controls are blocking more of their GPUs from being exported to China.

My question is: If Nvidia GPU designs were being ripped off in China, wouldn’t that also be a problem for Nvidia?

Further: Nvidia’s CEO was also it’s founder, has been around for a long time, and should be very long term oriented.

The same argument applies to ASML, who makes machines to make GPUs – although to a lesser degree as their CEO was not their founder.

o3 from OpenAI argues NO – Nvidia and ASML are still short term (1-10 year) oriented because they can afford to just stay one generation ahead of competition.

Further, o3 (I think rightly) argues that the risks to a nation (e.g. the US) are substantially larger than just to Nvidia. So, it’s correct to say that Nvidia would be more reluctant to sell it’s chips in China if it bore the costs to the whole industry and to the US as a whole.

I remain skeptical of these export bans. I’m not sure what way some of the arguments fall (like Chinese reliance on Western exports being a good thing OR export bans hurting Western companies more than anyone else). However, the bans seem a distraction to the more important questions of how we reduce barriers at home (in the West) to having great businesses and technology.

Anyway, these bans can’t be good for Nvidia. I suspect all of this publicity just gives more attention in China to building leading edge chips – and making that happen sooner.